Every week between now and January 23, 2024, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
The Color Purple
The musical adaptation bowed with a series of packed preview screenings last week, where the effusive audience response doubled as a show of force. This is a mainstream crowd-pleaser that feels destined to light up the holiday box-office (even if critics are more likely to be respectful than besotted). Its big, winning cast seems a natural fit for a Best Ensemble spot at SAG, and considering the pedigree and source material, a blockbuster haul could push the button that opens up a Best Picture nod. In a race full of arthouse fare, Purple’s only competition in the accessible lane is Barbie, and there’s definitely room for two.
Maestro
In a sign of Netflix’s hopes for Maestro, Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic is opening in theaters a full month before it’ll hit streaming. Like A Star Is Born, the film seems on track to deliver acting nominations for its stars, Cooper and Carey Mulligan, though the next hurdle is ginning up enough passion to become a major contender. Says Scott Tobias, “Cooper and Mulligan both deliver remarkable performances, but they also have to do a lot of work filling the blanks left by a film that wants to dazzle with almost every scene, only rarely stopping to take a breath.” Maestro is so prestige-y that I’ve seen signs of a brewing villain narrative online, though that’s not the kind of issue that should affect its fortunes in real life.
Current Predix
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Famously snubbed by the directors branch five years ago for A Star Is Born, Cooper digs even deeper into his bag of cinematic technique here: black-and-white, period mannerisms, swirling cinematography, even a dang dream ballet. What he achieves is the antithesis of a Wikipedia-highlights biopic. “Cooper is more interested in feelings than happenings, though part of what makes the movie pop and gives it currency is how he complicates the familiar Great Man of History template,” says Manohla Dargis. Has he done enough to win this branch over, or will their eyes once again be drawn to a European auteur? Perhaps someone should start a rumor that Abington is actually a department of France.
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
The Color Purple marks the U.S. theatrical debut for Bazawule, the Ghanaian musician-turned-filmmaker behind Beyoncé’s Black Is King. He opens up the musical with a series of bold stagings, and while you can’t deny the ambition, pundits are mixed on the execution. “The direction … I … um … choices,” writes Gregory Ellwood.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Cooper’s Star Is Born campaign emphasized his directorial prowess, which left him adrift when he only made it into Best Actor. With Maestro he’s taking a more balanced approach, highlighting the six years of prep work it took to convincingly portray Bernstein at the podium. (As proof, Netflix released a clip of Cooper conducting Mahler’s Second, one of the film’s standout scenes.) At the same time, he also ably defused the nose controversy. In short: Watch out Cillian Murphy, he’s coming for this trophy.
Colman Domingo, Rustin
As predicted, Domingo has campaigned like he’s been shot out of a cannon since the end of the SAG-AFTRA strike. He’s the hardest-working man on the circuit, and it feels increasingly crazy not to have him in my five. But who would he bump? Every other top contender is repping a likely Best Picture nominee, while Domingo’s Netflix biopic continues to pull in muted reviews. Still, there’s every chance he’ll get a boost from the other movie he’s appearing in this season …
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Reprising the role she took on Broadway, the former American Idol winner doesn’t appear in the first act of The Color Purple, where her character is played by a younger actress. In the second, she takes a backseat to a pair of dynamite supporting performances. But she comes into her own during the film’s final stretch with a series of powerhouse musical numbers. That potent finish could strike a chord with voters, though like De Niro in The Irishman, Barrino may be in danger of being overshadowed by her flashier co-stars.
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
In a race with no clear front-runner, pundits like Matt Neglia have staked a claim for Mulligan, whose Felicia Montealegre is billed above her onscreen husband. You wouldn’t call her overdue, exactly, but the English actress has amassed a solid awards track record, and there’d be a certain romance in handing out his-and-hers trophies for Maestro’s unconventional love story. Her stately, Oscar-friendly performance could wind up the least polarizing of the major contenders, as reviewers agree she’s the clear standout. “I spy a ghost of Julie Andrews in Mulligan’s smile … the perfect ratio of rose to thorn,” says Anthony Lane. “This is her movie, and Cooper, to do him justice, knows it.”
Current Predix
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
Brandishing a banjo like a malignant Sufjan Stevens, Domingo draws on the range he established in his character-actor years: He’s seductive, menacing, pathetic, chastened. While a double-nomination may be in the cards, he could cede the spotlight to his female castmates, who are the ones you come out of Color Purple raving about. Even so, if the musical lives up to current expectations, that’ll be more ballast for Domingo’s Best Actor candidacy.
Tom Hardy, The Bikeriders
The end of the SAG strike did not come soon enough for The Bikeriders. Jeff Nichols’s biker drama was pulled from its December release date, and has now ended up at Focus Features, who Indiewire reports will release it in 2024. We’ll have to wait until next year to see the actor’s nasally take on a ‘60s gang leader, which Peter Debruge hailed as “one of Hardy’s great roles.”
Current Predix
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Charles Melton, May December; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Finally, this race gets the shakeup it needed. As Sofia, the headstrong young woman played by Oprah in the 1985 film, Brooks had the audience in my screening eating out of her hand from her very first scene. She packs such a wallop whenever she’s onscreen that I suspect she could become the one to beat. While Brooks doesn’t have the longest list of film credits, I don’t think she’s quite the newcomer that some pundits have pegged her as: Her years on Orange Is the New Black should ensure she’s a familiar face to many voters.
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Don’t count out Henson, either, who displays surprising vocal chops as chanteuse Shug Avery. It’s a trickier part that it looks, since it’s key to making the middle stretch, in which our heroine finds self-actualization through cuckqueaning, work. As for the question of Brooks vs. Henson: Like the saying goes, why not both? Supporting Actress is thin this year, and you might recall that Spielberg’s Color Purple earned nominations for these same two roles.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple; Julianne Moore, May December; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
More From This Series
- The MFL Says Hello to the Season’s First Awards Nominations
- Will Napoleon’s Oscar Campaign End in Victory?
- Which Oscar Contenders Got the Biggest Boost From the End of the Strike?
